Insights
Tax tips, options trading ideas, and market takes — updated regularly.
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Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile options were pricing in double-digit swings ahead of their August 10 earnings. Both stocks whipsawed hard intraday — then landed far closer to unchanged than the options market bet on. Here's the IV crush lesson.
Polymarket priced a near-certain earnings beat for SanDisk, and the company delivered exactly that. The stock still dropped double digits — a clean lesson in why "will they beat?" and "will the stock react well?" are two completely different bets.
Eli Lilly's Q2 beat sent shares higher on August 5, but options markets had already priced in a $65–76 billion swing beforehand. Here's how implied move is calculated, why the number shifts daily, and what IV crush means for anyone holding options into earnings.
Reddit reports Thursday, July 30, with options pricing in about a 12% swing. But the bigger lesson already happened this week: a single report about a content-licensing deal moved the stock nearly as much as a typical earnings reaction would. Here's how to think about both kinds of risk.
General Motors beat Q2 estimates, raised full-year guidance for the second time this year, and its stock rose about 5% — right in line with what the options market had already priced in. Here's how implied moves work, and what it means to trade an earnings gap after the fact.