Insights

Tax tips, options trading ideas, and market takes — updated regularly.

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Options Trading
A Prediction Market Was 96% Sure SanDisk Would Beat Earnings. It Did. The Stock Fell Anyway

Polymarket priced a near-certain earnings beat for SanDisk, and the company delivered exactly that. The stock still dropped double digits — a clean lesson in why "will they beat?" and "will the stock react well?" are two completely different bets.

August 6, 2026 ET

Options Strategies
Palantir Earnings Monday: What a 10%+ Implied Move Actually Means

Palantir reports Q2 earnings Monday after the close, and options traders have priced in a double-digit swing. Here's what "implied move" measures, why it isn't a prediction, and what happens to option prices once the uncertainty lifts.

August 1, 2026 ET

Market Commentary
Earnings Season's 86% Beat Rate Sounds Great. Here's What It Doesn't Tell You

S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates at the highest rate since 2021, and this week brings one of the year's heaviest reporting slates. Here's why a high beat rate is a squishier signal than it looks — and what actually prices in an individual stock's earnings risk.

August 1, 2026 ET

Options Strategies Market Commentary
South Korea's Stock Market Just Had Its Biggest Day on Record. Here's the Options Lesson It Teaches

KOSPI posted its largest single-day gain ever on July 31, and SK Hynix hit its exchange-imposed daily limit. Neither move is directly tradable by U.S. investors, but the volatility mechanics behind them apply everywhere options trade.

July 31, 2026 ET

Options Strategies Market Commentary
Chevron's Earnings Options Are Pricing a 3% Move. History Says That's Optimistic.

Options traders are pricing a roughly 3% move into Chevron's July 31 earnings. Chevron has blown past its own implied move in half of its last eight reports. Here's what that gap means for anyone selling premium into the print.

July 30, 2026 ET

Options Trading
American Express Reports Friday — Options Are Pricing a Quieter Move Than You'd Think

AmEx reports Q2 earnings before Friday's open, with options pricing a move under 5% — modest by earnings-season standards. Here's what that smaller number still means for straddles, covered calls, and the IV crush that hits regardless of size.

July 18, 2026 ET