Insights
Tax tips, options trading ideas, and market takes — updated regularly.
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Polymarket priced a near-certain earnings beat for SanDisk, and the company delivered exactly that. The stock still dropped double digits — a clean lesson in why "will they beat?" and "will the stock react well?" are two completely different bets.
Palantir reports Q2 earnings Monday after the close, and options traders have priced in a double-digit swing. Here's what "implied move" measures, why it isn't a prediction, and what happens to option prices once the uncertainty lifts.
S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates at the highest rate since 2021, and this week brings one of the year's heaviest reporting slates. Here's why a high beat rate is a squishier signal than it looks — and what actually prices in an individual stock's earnings risk.
KOSPI posted its largest single-day gain ever on July 31, and SK Hynix hit its exchange-imposed daily limit. Neither move is directly tradable by U.S. investors, but the volatility mechanics behind them apply everywhere options trade.
Options traders are pricing a roughly 3% move into Chevron's July 31 earnings. Chevron has blown past its own implied move in half of its last eight reports. Here's what that gap means for anyone selling premium into the print.
AmEx reports Q2 earnings before Friday's open, with options pricing a move under 5% — modest by earnings-season standards. Here's what that smaller number still means for straddles, covered calls, and the IV crush that hits regardless of size.