Is That Earnings "Implied Move" Big or Small? Compare It With the Stock's Own History: HTZ, FN, HUBS
Earnings season gives options traders a headline number: the implied move. A raw percentage means little without context, so a common habit is to compare it with how far the stock has actually moved after past reports. Using Hertz, Fabrinet and HubSpot as examples from the Nov. 2-6, 2026 earnings week, this article walks through the comparison, the straddle math behind the number, and the limits of the approach, including small samples, fat-tailed outcomes, and IV crush. It does not forecast any stock or suggest a trade.
"The options market expects a 21.8% move." Is that big or small? You can't tell without a yardstick. A useful one is the stock's own history: how far has it typically moved after earnings?
The implied move is the size of the post-earnings price swing that option prices point to, in either direction. This piece uses three companies from next week's calendar to show how to size it up. It is about the method, not a prediction.
The three examples
According to company releases, Fabrinet (FN) is scheduled to report after the close on Monday, Nov. 2, HubSpot (HUBS) on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and Hertz (HTZ) before the open on Thursday, Nov. 5, with results at 8:00 a.m. ET. HubSpot's after-the-close timing comes from secondary calendars rather than the company page, so check its investor site.
One earnings-calendar site listed these figures as of Oct. 30:
| Stock | Implied move | Ten-year average move |
|---|---|---|
| HTZ | ±21.8% | ±16.3% |
| FN | ±21.4% | ±13.0% |
| HUBS | ±17.1% | ±11.0% |
All three implied moves sit above the site's historical averages. The site's methodology is not fully disclosed, and implied moves change as option prices change, so treat this table as a worked example, not data to rely on.
Step 1: What the implied move is
The implied move is usually estimated from the at-the-money straddle: a call and a put at the same strike, the strike nearest the stock price, for the first expiration after earnings. Add the two prices and divide by the stock price. The result is an approximate percentage swing in either direction. It says nothing about direction.
Sources differ on which version is better: the full straddle price, or about 85% of it. Some practitioners multiply by 0.85 to approximate one standard deviation, which under a bell-curve assumption would cover roughly 68% of outcomes. A site that doesn't say which version it uses leaves you comparing numbers that may not line up.
Step 2: Line it up against history
Divide the implied move by the historical average. HTZ's ratio is about 1.3 (21.8 divided by 16.3), FN's about 1.6, and HUBS's about 1.6.
A ratio above 1 suggests options are pricing more surprise than the stock has typically delivered. A ratio below 1 suggests a calmer report than usual. Neither says whether options are "cheap" or "expensive," because that depends on what happens next.
Step 3: Ask why the gap exists
A gap is a question, not an answer. Possible reasons include:
- Recent turbulence. A stock that has recently swung hard, or whose business is under stress, can carry higher implied moves than its long-run average.
- A changed company. A ten-year average can blend years when the business looked very different. A ten-year window holds at most about 40 quarterly reports, and fewer for newer companies.
- Market-wide nerves. After the Nasdaq's roughly 5% decline in October, option prices broadly may carry extra premium.
- Data quirks. Calendars can mislabel tickers or define "average" differently.
Step 4: Remember the caveats
Averages hide the shape. Earnings reactions are often lumpy: several modest moves and an occasional enormous one. One outlier can lift an average.
No average is a rule. Studies comparing realized earnings moves with implied moves have reached different conclusions depending on the period and method, and any single report can land well outside the implied range.
IV crush is real. Implied volatility (IV), the volatility level built into option prices, tends to fall after the news. Option values can drop even when the stock moves the way an owner hoped.
Risk runs both ways. Buyers of options can lose the entire premium paid. Sellers can face losses far larger than the premium they collect if a surprise move arrives, and undefined-risk positions can lose more than the amount invested.
Putting it together
Treat the implied move as a price for uncertainty, not a promise. Comparing it with history is a way to ask better questions: what is the market worried about, and does the historical base rate (how stocks like this have usually behaved) still apply?
This article is educational commentary on public market events, not personalized investment, trading, or tax advice. Figures are from public sources as of Oct. 30, 2026 and may have changed.
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